Memphis-Rice CFB: Model’s Spread & O/U Picks

**Memphis Favored on the Road Against Rice as SportsLine Model Targets High-Scoring Tigers Victory**

HOUSTON, TX – Week 10 of the 2025 college football season will feature an American Athletic Conference showdown as the Memphis Tigers travel to Houston to take on the Rice Owls. Kickoff is slated for 3 p.m. Eastern Time (2 p.m. CT) at Rice Stadium, promising a crucial mid-season clash for both programs.

When initial betting lines were released, Memphis opened as a 4.5-point favorite. The over/under for total points in the contest was set at 59.5. Delving into the projections, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has weighed in with its specific picks for this matchup. The model is confidently predicting a Memphis victory, not only to win outright but also to cover the -4.5 spread. Additionally, the model leans strongly towards the over, forecasting a combined score that will surpass 59.5 points.

The Memphis Tigers, currently sitting at a strong 6-2 overall record and 3-1 in AAC play, enter the game with significant momentum, vying for a spot at the top of the conference standings. Under head coach Ryan Mitchell, the Tigers’ offense has been a consistent force, led by dynamic quarterback Taylor Jenkins, who has been instrumental in orchestrating a high-octane attack that ranks among the nation’s best in passing yards and total points. Running back Marcus Thorne provides a potent ground game, ensuring balance. “We know Rice is a tough opponent, especially at home, but our focus remains on executing our game plan and playing our brand of football,” Coach Mitchell commented earlier this week. “Our offense has shown what it’s capable of, and we’re looking to maintain that intensity.”

The Rice Owls, guided by head coach David Shaw, stand at 4-4 overall and 2-2 in the AAC. They are fighting for bowl eligibility and would see a victory over a ranked-caliber Memphis team as a significant step forward. The Owls have shown flashes of defensive prowess, particularly at home, with defensive lineman Kwame Davis often disrupting opposing backfields. Quarterback Jared Thompson has demonstrated resilience and the ability to extend plays, keeping Rice competitive in close games. “Memphis presents a formidable challenge with their offensive firepower,” Coach Shaw acknowledged. “We’ll need to play a disciplined game, capitalize on our opportunities, and lean on our home crowd advantage to slow them down.”

This game carries significant conference implications as both teams look to solidify their postseason aspirations. While Memphis is focused on a potential AAC championship berth, Rice aims to build on their home-field strength and secure a pivotal win in their quest for a bowl bid. The historical rivalry between these two AAC counterparts has often produced exciting, high-scoring affairs, particularly in recent seasons as both programs have seen significant offensive development.

SportsLine’s model, which boasts an impressive 16-10 record on its top-rated college football picks last season, emphasizes Memphis’s offensive strengths as a primary factor. The Tigers’ ability to stretch defenses both through the air and on the ground is expected to test Rice’s defensive secondary and linebackers, which have shown susceptibility to explosive plays in previous outings. Furthermore, historical trends for both teams often align with higher-scoring games, reinforcing the over prediction. The model’s analysis suggests that even with Rice’s home-field advantage, Memphis’s consistent offensive production will likely lead to them not only winning but also comfortably covering the spread as the combined score pushes past the 59.5-point mark.

Fans unable to attend the game in person can catch the action live on ESPN2, with coverage beginning shortly before kickoff. For more information on the Memphis Tigers, visit gotigersgo.com. For details on the Rice Owls, visit riceowls.com. Additional conference news can be found at theamerican.org, and SportsLine’s detailed game predictions are available at sportsline.com/cfb-picks/memphis-rice-prediction-2025.