CFP Committee’s Initial Rankings Analysis

**First College Football Playoff Rankings of Season Set to Ignite Debate, Shape Playoff Picture**

**IRVING, Texas** – The anticipation for the 2023 College Football Playoff (CFP) picture reaches a fever pitch this Tuesday, October 31st, as the 13-member selection committee prepares to unveil its initial rankings of the season. Airing exclusively on ESPN, this first reveal is far more than just a list; it’s a foundational statement, offering the clearest glimpse yet into the committee’s priorities and setting the stage for the intense playoff race ahead.

Will an unblemished record be paramount, or will a robust strength of schedule and a signature win carry more weight? These are the central questions facing a committee tasked with identifying the four “best” teams in the nation.

**Undefeated Power 5 Frontrunners**

A strong contingent of undefeated Power 5 teams stands poised for high placements. Georgia (AP No. 1), the reigning two-time national champion, currently holds a dominant position from the Southeastern Conference. The Big Ten boasts two unbeaten titans in Michigan (AP No. 2) and Ohio State (AP No. 3), both of whom are expected to be near the top.

Out of the Atlantic Coast Conference, Florida State (AP No. 4) has navigated a challenging schedule without a blemish. The Pac-12’s Washington (AP No. 5) has also maintained a perfect record, fueled by a high-octane offense. Finally, the Big 12’s Oklahoma (AP No. 9), currently sitting outside the top-5 in the AP Poll, will be eager to see if the committee values its undefeated run more highly.

The committee’s initial ordering of these six teams will be heavily scrutinized, particularly how they weigh the strength of individual conferences and the quality of victories.

**One-Loss Contenders with Strong Arguments**

Beyond the undefeated ranks, a compelling group of one-loss teams has made strong cases for high initial rankings, potentially even leapfrogging some unbeatens. Texas (AP No. 7) holds perhaps the most significant trump card with its dominant road victory over Alabama earlier in the season – a win that could be viewed as one of the season’s most impactful.

Alabama (AP No. 8) itself, despite its early loss to Texas, has rebounded convincingly and remains a perennial playoff contender. Penn State (AP No. 10) suffered its only defeat against rival Ohio State, a quality loss that could work in its favor. In the Pac-12, Oregon (AP No. 8) lost a nail-biter to Washington, but its overall resume is formidable.

Other one-loss Power 5 teams vying for relevance and a respectable initial ranking include Louisville (AP No. 13), Ole Miss (AP No. 11), LSU (AP No. 14), and Missouri (AP No. 12), each hoping their singular defeat doesn’t overshadow their impressive wins.

**The Group of 5 Outlook**

The Group of 5 picture also features several undefeated squads, though their path to a CFP berth remains historically challenging. Air Force (AP No. 17) from the Mountain West and Tulane (AP No. 23) out of the American Athletic Conference are both unblemished. James Madison (AP No. 25) from the Sun Belt also holds an undefeated record but, as a transitional FBS program, is ineligible for CFP consideration or a bowl game unless there aren’t enough eligible teams to fill all slots.

While a CFP spot is highly unlikely for G5 teams, one of these top-ranked programs will almost certainly secure a coveted New Year’s Six bowl bid as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion.

**Committee’s Distinct Approach and Past Surprises**

The CFP selection committee – a diverse group of athletic directors, former coaches, and administrators – employs a distinct methodology that often diverges from the AP Top 25 or Coaches’ Polls. Their criteria emphasize won-loss record, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, common opponents, and conference championships, all assessed subjectively to determine the “best” teams.

History shows the committee isn’t afraid to surprise. In 2022, Tennessee debuted at a surprisingly high No. 1 ranking, despite being No. 3 in the AP Poll. In 2021, Michigan began at No. 7 before climbing all the way to No. 2 by season’s end, eventually making the playoff. These precedents suggest that Tuesday night’s reveal could feature a few eyebrow-raising placements, especially concerning the initial positioning of top-tier undefeated teams like Georgia or Michigan, or how a one-loss contender like Texas is valued.

The rankings will be broadcast on Tuesday, October 31st, beginning at 7 PM ET on ESPN, offering fans and analysts alike their first concrete look at the playoff landscape as the regular season hurtles towards its crucial final month.