CFB Coaching Decisions, Costs, & Playoff Future

**Michigan Triumphs in Harbaugh’s Absence, Intensifying Pressure on Penn State’s Franklin**

Happy Valley, PA – Michigan secured a significant 24-15 road victory over Penn State in Week 10 of the college football season on November 11, 2023, a win particularly notable as the Wolverines played without their head coach, Jim Harbaugh. Offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore stepped in to lead the team from the sidelines, guiding Michigan to maintain its undefeated record amidst a tumultuous season.

Harbaugh’s absence stemmed from a three-game Big Ten suspension, imposed just hours before kickoff, related to an alleged sign-stealing scheme and NCAA investigation involving Wolverines analyst Connor Stalions. Moore, visibly emotional during post-game interviews, steered the team to a crucial victory that solidified their playoff aspirations and showcased the program’s resilience. The win marked Michigan’s third consecutive against Penn State, improving their record to 10-0 for the season.

For Penn State, this critical home loss at Beaver Stadium has significantly intensified scrutiny around head coach James Franklin. The defeat further highlighted his team’s struggles in major matchups, dropping his record against top-10 opponents to a concerning 3-17. This follows an earlier 20-12 defeat to Ohio State this season, reinforcing a narrative of falling short in high-stakes games. Franklin, who took over the Nittany Lions program in 2014, signed a lucrative 10-year contract extension in 2021 worth $7 million annually. However, with a substantial $24 million buyout still on the table, the financial implications of any potential coaching change remain a significant hurdle for the university.

This situation at Penn State underscores a broader trend in college football: the escalating cost associated with coaching changes. The market for new coaches is currently considered a “sellers market,” meaning top candidates command significant compensation, and buyouts for existing coaches can be astronomical. A recent high-profile example is Jimbo Fisher’s departure from Texas A&M, which saw the university on the hook for a buyout reportedly exceeding $76 million before negotiations. Such figures highlight the immense financial burden athletic departments face when contemplating a coaching overhaul, often creating a dilemma between fan expectations and fiscal responsibility.

Looking ahead, discussions around the College Football Playoff continue to evolve, particularly with its expansion from four to twelve teams set for the 2024 season. Under the new 12-team format, the six highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids, with the remaining six spots allocated to at-large selections. While some have speculated that conferences like the ACC might struggle without a guaranteed playoff spot for its champion every year, the argument persists that a strong, undefeated ACC team, such as Florida State this year, can still contend for a playoff berth even under the current four-team model. Ultimately, top teams from any conference, including the ACC, are expected to make a strong case for inclusion regardless of specific conference championship automatic bids, provided they perform at a consistently high level throughout the season.