CFP: Missing the Cut is the New Normal

**The Myth of Annual Playoff Berth: Why Even College Football’s Elite Can’t Guarantee a Spot**

**AUSTIN, TX** – In the high-stakes world of college football, the College Football Playoff (CFP) has become the gold standard, often perceived as a mandatory destination for top-tier programs. Yet, the notion that even the sport’s perennial powerhouses can consistently secure a playoff berth each season is rapidly proving to be an increasingly unrealistic myth, driven by a hyper-competitive landscape and evolving dynamics.

The chatter among fan bases and media often hints at a “playoff-or-bust” mentality for coaches at elite schools, creating immense pressure. While some might point to hypothetical scenarios, such as the unfounded idea that LSU might consider firing Brian Kelly for missing the CFP (despite his strong performance in Baton Rouge), the reality is far more complex. Sustained excellence is the goal, but a guaranteed playoff spot every year is a pipe dream, even for the most dominant programs.

Since its inception in the 2014 season, the CFP has demonstrated just how exclusive its club truly is. Over ten seasons, a mere 15 unique teams have earned a spot in the four-team tournament. Even more striking, only three programs – Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State – have managed to make more than two appearances.

Even for these titans, playoff consistency is not a given. Clemson, a program that clinched national titles in 2016 and 2018 and enjoyed an incredible six-year playoff streak from 2015 to 2020, found itself on the outside looking in during both the 2021 and 2023 seasons. Their 2023 campaign was particularly challenging, marked by the snapping of their astonishing 40-game home winning streak by Florida State. Similarly, Ohio State, another consistent contender, missed the playoff in 2021 and 2023, despite making appearances in 2014, 2016, 2019, 2020, and 2022.

Perhaps the most telling example of the challenge facing even the cream of the crop is Alabama. Widely considered the most dominant program of the modern era, with national titles in 2015, 2017, and 2020 and an impressive eight appearances in ten years, even the Crimson Tide failed to make the cut in 2022. Reigning back-to-back champions Georgia, who hoisted the trophy in 2021 and 2022, also experienced a playoff miss in 2020. Meanwhile, traditional football giants like USC and Texas have yet to make a single playoff appearance in the CFP era.

The razor-thin margins and subjective nature of the selection committee were starkly highlighted in the 2023 season with Florida State. The Seminoles achieved a perfect 13-0 record, winning the ACC Championship, yet were controversially excluded from the playoff. The CFP Selection Committee cited a season-ending injury to their starting quarterback, Jordan Travis, effectively declaring them “not the same team” without him, a decision that sparked widespread debate and underscored the impact of unforeseen circumstances.

The landscape of college football has undergone significant transformations, further contributing to the difficulty of consistent playoff berths. The advent of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals and the expansive transfer portal have fundamentally reshaped roster construction and player movement. These changes have, in many ways, begun to even the playing field, allowing non-traditional powers to recruit and retain talent more effectively. Coupled with the inherent unpredictability of injuries, the challenge of navigating tough schedules, or simply enduring an “off” year, even the best-coached and most talented teams face an uphill battle to remain flawless.

While the College Football Playoff is set to expand to a 12-team format beginning in the 2024 season, increasing the number of playoff spots, it is unlikely to eliminate the pressure or guarantee annual berths for every traditional powerhouse. The underlying competitiveness, the impact of NIL and the portal, and the sheer unpredictability of the game itself mean that hitting that championship mark every single year will remain an increasingly aspirational, rather than realistic, expectation for even college football’s biggest brands.