Predicting First CFP Top 25 Rankings

**College Football Playoff Committee Set to Unveil Initial Top 25 Amidst Undefeated Logjam**

**BRISTOL, CT – October 30, 2023** – Anticipation is building across the college football landscape as the College Football Playoff (CFP) Selection Committee prepares to release its first official rankings of the 2023 season this Tuesday, October 31st, at approximately 7:00 PM ET, live on ESPN. These initial rankings will offer the first tangible glimpse into how the committee views the national championship contenders, setting the stage for the crucial weeks ahead.

With five Power Five teams – Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State, and Washington – still boasting perfect 8-0 records, the committee faces a formidable challenge in ordering the top tier. Experts and analysts widely expect strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and overall team performance to be paramount in these early deliberations.

Defending national champion Georgia (8-0, SEC) is projected by many, including this publication, to claim the coveted No. 1 spot. The Bulldogs, despite a less-than-dominant start, have steadily improved and cemented their status with key SEC victories. They are expected to narrowly edge out Michigan (8-0, Big Ten), whose dominant performances have been impressive, though their strength of schedule may be scrutinized more intensely compared to Georgia’s.

The battle for the critical No. 3 and No. 4 positions is poised to be the most contentious. Ohio State (8-0, Big Ten), Florida State (8-0, ACC), and Washington (8-0, Pac-12) all present compelling cases. Ohio State’s resume includes a significant road win over Notre Dame. Florida State has navigated a tough ACC schedule, including a decisive victory over LSU. Washington, with a high-octane offense, boasts an impressive win over Oregon. The committee will weigh these quality wins, alongside each team’s overall body of work, to distinguish between them.

Just outside this projected top four, Oregon (7-1, Pac-12) makes a strong argument for inclusion, potentially landing around No. 5 or No. 6 despite a single loss to Washington. Their offensive firepower and dominant wins since that narrow defeat will likely impress the committee. Texas (7-1, Big 12) is expected to hold a prominent spot, potentially No. 7, largely due to their decisive early-season head-to-head victory over Alabama. This win serves as a powerful differentiator for the Longhorns.

Penn State (7-1, Big Ten), whose only defeat came on the road against Ohio State, is anticipated to be a top-10 team, likely around No. 9. Oklahoma (7-1, Big 12), despite a recent upset loss to Kansas, is still expected to round out the top ten given their strong start and earlier quality wins.

Further down the initial pecking order, a host of one-loss and two-loss teams will be eager to see their standing. Ole Miss (7-1, SEC) and Missouri (7-1, SEC) are both projected to be firmly within the Top 20, showcasing the depth of the SEC. LSU (6-2, SEC) presents an interesting case; despite two losses, their robust schedule and quality wins within the SEC often lead the committee to rank them higher than some teams with theoretically better records. Similarly, Notre Dame (6-2, Independent) has played a challenging schedule, including matchups against Ohio State and Louisville, which could boost their position.

Other teams firmly in the mix include Utah (6-2, Pac-12), Kansas State (6-2, Big 12), and Louisville (7-1, ACC), all of whom have proven their mettle in competitive conferences. The bubble teams, vying for a spot in the initial Top 25, will be particularly attentive. Teams like Kansas (5-3, Big 12), who recently upset Oklahoma, Liberty (8-0, C-USA), Air Force (8-0, MWC), UCLA (6-2, Pac-12), and Arizona (5-3, Pac-12) could emerge as surprises, with the committee often rewarding strong recent performances and quality wins.

**Understanding the College Football Playoff Process:**

The College Football Playoff was established in 2014 to determine college football’s national champion. A 13-member selection committee, composed of athletic directors, former coaches, and administrators, is tasked with ranking the top 25 teams each week. Their primary objective is to select the four best teams for the playoff, as well as identify the next highest-ranked teams to participate in the New Year’s Six bowl games.

The committee employs several key criteria, often in this order of emphasis:
1. **Strength of Schedule (SOS):** The quality of opponents faced, not just the win-loss record.
2. **Head-to-Head Competition:** A direct win over another team, particularly if that team is similarly ranked or in contention.
3. **Conference Championships Won:** While less relevant in initial rankings, this becomes a critical factor as the season progresses.
4. **Comparisons of Common Opponents:** Evaluating how teams perform against mutual adversaries.
5. **Overall Team Performance/Eye Test:** Subjective assessment of how dominant, consistent, and talented a team appears.

These initial rankings are significant as they establish a baseline and influence perception, but they are far from final. The committee will release new rankings every Tuesday through December 3rd, leading up to Selection Sunday. With crucial conference matchups, potential upsets, and conference championship games still ahead, the path to the College Football Playoff remains wide open, promising a thrilling conclusion to the 2023 season.