Instinct Over Algorithm: The New QB Scouting

**College Football’s 2023 QB Revolution: Coaching Instincts Trump Algorithms in Signal-Caller Success**

ANN ARBOR, MI – The 2023 college football season has unfolded as a testament to coaching instincts over analytical data when it comes to identifying and developing top-tier quarterbacks. As teams prepare for conference championships and bowl games in early December, many of the season’s most impactful signal-callers are not the five-star recruits from day one, but rather individuals who thrived through transfer portal opportunities or unheralded internal development.

Perhaps no story encapsulates this trend more acutely than that of Drew Mestemaker, a walk-on who joined the Michigan Wolverines in Summer 2021. With no Division-I offers and, remarkably, no high school film from his time at Lake Orion High School in Michigan, Mestemaker’s path to the national stage was anything but conventional. Yet, he has become a significant, albeit largely unseen, asset to the Wolverines’ undefeated season.

Mestemaker quickly forged a reputation as a “scout team legend” within the Michigan program. His dedication and talent apparently impressed Head Coach Jim Harbaugh to such an extent that Harbaugh, known for his keen eye for quarterback talent, once lauded Mestemaker as the best quarterback on the team during internal discussions. Star running back Blake Corum has publicly affirmed Mestemaker’s profound impact, noting his crucial role in preparing the team for games by expertly mimicking opposing quarterbacks. This relentless preparation has been invaluable, particularly in sharpening the skills of starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy each week, showcasing the power of internal development.

Mestemaker’s journey is not an isolated incident in the 2023 landscape. This season has highlighted numerous quarterbacks who, despite not being the most highly touted recruits or initially finding success at their first stop, have flourished under new guidance or through persistent development.

Out in Baton Rouge, Jayden Daniels, who transferred to LSU from Arizona State in 2022, has transformed into a leading Heisman Trophy contender. Under the tutelage of Brian Kelly, Daniels has showcased an electrifying dual-threat ability, accumulating over 3,800 passing yards and 1,100 rushing yards with more than 50 total touchdowns as of late November, proving that a fresh start can ignite a superstar trajectory.

Similarly, Michael Penix Jr. made the move from Indiana to Washington in 2022 and has absolutely dominated the Pacific-12 Conference. Penix Jr., another Heisman candidate, has guided the Huskies to an undefeated season, throwing for over 4,200 yards and 33 touchdowns, demonstrating his elite arm talent after battling injuries earlier in his career.

Bo Nix, who transferred to Oregon from Auburn in 2022, is another prime example. After an inconsistent start to his college career, Nix has truly found his stride under coach Dan Lanning, leading the Ducks to a formidable season with nearly 3,900 passing yards and 37 touchdowns while completing over 77% of his passes. His resurgence underscores the importance of the right fit and coaching environment.

The trend extends even to perennial powerhouses. At Georgia, Carson Beck stepped into the starting role after backing up two-time national champion Stetson Bennett, and has seamlessly maintained the Bulldogs’ offensive prowess, throwing for over 3,700 yards and 22 touchdowns in his first year as a starter. His readiness speaks volumes about internal succession planning and development.

Meanwhile, in the SEC, Brady Cook, a local product, has led Missouri to a surprising 10-2 season, exceeding all expectations. His consistent play, with over 3,200 yards and 21 touchdowns, illustrates the impact a homegrown talent, developed within the program, can have. Graham Mertz, who transferred from Wisconsin to Florida for the 2023 season, is another quarterback finding his footing, posting respectable numbers with nearly 2,900 yards and 20 touchdowns, despite the Gators’ struggles.

The collective narrative of the 2023 college football season, culminating in early December, strongly suggests that while some quarterbacks are highly touted from day one, many of the most impactful players are those coaches brought in or developed because they “saw something special” beyond what was merely “on paper.” It is a resounding testament to the enduring power of coaching instincts, player development, and the belief in untapped potential.