Tulane-UTSA: Computer Model’s Top Upset & Under Picks

**AAC Showdown: Tulane Favored, But SportsLine Model Taps UTSA for Upset in New Orleans Clash**

New Orleans, LA – Week 10 of the 2024 college football season kicks off with a pivotal American Athletic Conference (AAC) matchup as the Tulane Green Wave hosts the UTSA Roadrunners on Saturday, November 2nd. The highly anticipated game, set for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff from Yulman Stadium, will be broadcast live on ESPN2, promising a significant battle with potential conference championship implications.

Both Tulane and UTSA are expected to be frontrunners in the competitive AAC landscape, making this contest a crucial barometer for their title aspirations. Tulane, riding the momentum of recent success and a strong home-field advantage in their intimate New Orleans venue, will look to assert dominance. UTSA, a program that has rapidly ascended to national prominence, will aim to continue its aggressive charge through the conference.

Vegas oddsmakers have positioned the Green Wave as the 4.5-point favorite for the contest. The total points, or over/under, has been set at 51.5, suggesting expectations for a moderately high-scoring affair. For those exploring money line wagers, Tulane holds a -195 payout, while UTSA presents a tempting +162 return for an outright win.

However, advanced analytics from SportsLine’s proprietary computer model offer a contrasting perspective on how this game might unfold. After rigorously simulating the matchup a staggering 10,000 times, the model is signaling a strong lean towards the underdog Roadrunners.

According to SportsLine’s projections, UTSA is predicted to cover the 4.5-point spread in over 50% of its simulations. Even more compelling, the model foresees UTSA pulling off an outright upset victory in more than 40% of those scenarios. This makes the Roadrunners’ money line at +162 a particularly attractive “value bet” for those looking to capitalize on a potentially mispriced underdog.

Regarding the game’s total score, the SportsLine model confidently advises betting the “Under” 51.5 points, suggesting that despite the offensive capabilities of both squads, the game is more likely to be a lower-scoring defensive battle than current expectations might imply. One specific simulation scenario highlighted even projected a 27-24 Tulane victory, a score that would still see UTSA successfully cover the +4.5 spread.

As Week 10 approaches, fans and bettors alike will be watching closely to see if the Green Wave can defend their home turf as favorites, or if the UTSA Roadrunners will validate the SportsLine model’s confidence and pull off a significant road upset.

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