2023 CFB Coach Job Security Rankings

College football’s annual coaching carousel predictions are already spinning into high gear, even before the first kickoff, as a comprehensive new ranking evaluating the job security of all 126 FBS head coaches has stirred significant discussion across the sport. Released around August 15, 2023, the assessment, published by a prominent national sports media outlet, offers a stark breakdown of who’s enjoying rock-solid stability and who’s facing an existential season.

At the pinnacle of job security, a select group of coaches has been deemed “Absolutely Untouchable.” These are the architects of perennial contenders, the proven winners who have delivered championships or consistent elite performance. This elite tier includes Dabo Swinney at Clemson, architect of multiple national titles and ACC dominance; Kirby Smart, who has elevated Georgia to a national powerhouse; Ryan Day, steering the Ohio State Buckeyes’ high-powered offense; and, of course, the legendary Nick Saban, who continues to define excellence at Alabama. Joining them are Lincoln Riley, who quickly revitalized USC; Brian Kelly, making significant strides at LSU; Jim Harbaugh, having returned Michigan to playoff contention; Marcus Freeman, leading the storied Notre Dame program; Mike Norvell, recently turning Florida State into a legitimate ACC threat; and Kalen DeBoer, who engineered a remarkable turnaround at Washington. For these individuals, the upcoming 2023 season, regardless of its outcomes, is not expected to pose any threat to their tenure; their programs are stable, and their positions are unequivocally secure.

The vast majority of FBS coaches populate the extensive middle section of the ranking, ranging from “Safe and Secure” to “Heating Up.” This group encompasses coaches with varying levels of pressure, often influenced by recent performance trends, recruiting successes, and the specifics of their current contracts. A coach entering their second season, for example, might fall into the “Should Be Safe (If All Goes Well)” category, with an expectation of clear improvement in 2023 but not yet under the intense scrutiny of a long-tenured veteran. These coaches are generally not in immediate danger, but continued success and meeting program expectations are crucial for maintaining their comfortable standing. Factors like roster management in the age of the transfer portal and NIL collective engagement play an increasingly significant role in their perceived stability.

Further down the comprehensive list are those coaches who are truly “Looking Over Their Shoulder” or, in the most dire circumstances, squarely in the “Win Or Be Fired” category. These are the coaches for whom the 2023 season represents a make-or-break moment. They are often at programs with rich histories and demanding fan bases, or they have simply failed to meet escalating expectations over the past few seasons. The pressure is immense, fueled by booster demands, recruiting struggles, and an increasingly impatient college football landscape. Failure to deliver significant, tangible results – be it a winning record, a bowl appearance, or a competitive conference finish – is widely expected to lead to their departure after the fall, highlighting the cutthroat nature of top-tier collegiate athletics.

Finally, the ranking recognizes the “New Guys” – those head coaches who have just taken the reins of their respective programs. As fresh hires, they are typically afforded a grace period and do not yet face hot seat assessments. Their initial season is largely about establishing culture, recruiting, and setting foundational principles, with the real pressure of job security usually beginning to mount in their second or third year. This initial immunity acknowledges the significant undertaking of building or rebuilding a college football program in a landscape continually reshaped by evolving rules, player movement, and immense financial stakes. The comprehensive ranking serves as a stark reminder that in college football, success is often the only currency that guarantees a coach’s long-term future.